Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1789 United Flight history →	IAD 08:25	SAT 10:59	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1869 United Flight history →	IAD 17:45	SAT 20:22	17%	6%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	6h 11m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667	6h 49m	95%	86%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 39m Denver	DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022	7h 42m	97%	85%
United Details →	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	3h 46m Houston	IAH 14:45 → SAT 15:56UA 2030	8h 16m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465	7h 50m	99%	84%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:12 → SAT 13:32AA 2768	8h 18m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:22 → SAT 18:50DL 2893	7h 13m	98%	81%
United Details →	IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587	2h 57m Denver	DEN 17:39 → SAT 20:54UA 2819	9h 06m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON