tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 3525 at 08:47, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3525 Republic IAD 08:47 SDF 10:41 8% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 3980 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 12:48 SDF 14:37 18% 6% 0.4% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 5h 51m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 5h 21m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → SDF 22:04DL 2842 7h 02m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 6h 34m 91% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SDF 19:22DL 2831 6h 45m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331 3h 21m Chicago ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic 7h 08m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535 1h 24m Houston IAH 16:35 → SDF 20:01UA 4050 · flown by Mesa 7h 11m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 1h 22m Denver DEN 17:51 → SDF 22:36UA 514 8h 01m 94% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON