Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1015 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1015 IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest UA 1128 IAD 17:45 → SEA 20:36 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1015 Delta Flight history →	IAD 07:00	SEA 09:45	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 1824 United	IAD 13:05	SEA 15:56	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 375 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 08:58	SEA 11:37	16%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 1574 Alaska	IAD 07:03	SEA 09:39	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 737 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 18:14	SEA 21:09	21%	5%	0.7%	58%
UA 1128 United	IAD 17:45	SEA 20:36	22%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734	7h 34m	92%	77%
United Details →	IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587	1h 16m Denver	DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013	8h 11m	94%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON