Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1095 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1095 IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1757 IAD 17:55 → SFO 20:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1095 United Flight history →	IAD 06:30	SFO 09:12	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1773 United	IAD 09:45	SFO 12:29	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1147 United Flight history →	IAD 08:35	SFO 11:19	15%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 2862 United Flight history →	IAD 14:51	SFO 17:38	17%	7%	0.6%	82%
UA 1434 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SFO 15:27	18%	7%	0.6%	79%
UA 796 United Flight history →	IAD 16:15	SFO 18:56	19%	7%	0.6%	84%
UA 2832 United	IAD 18:37	SFO 21:28	21%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SFO 20:37	30%	10%	0.6%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689	1h 28m Los Angeles	LAX 17:10 → SFO 18:38UA 233	8h 28m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	54m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	7h 29m	92%	75%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 20m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	7h 56m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON