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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 9h 01m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 15m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:58 → SJC 13:56AA 2834 10h 42m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 3h 50m Denver DEN 15:55 → SJC 17:35UA 1883 10h 22m 99% 82%
FrontierDetails → IAD 06:03 → LAS 08:18F9 4277 3h 21m Las Vegas LAS 11:39 → SJC 13:17F9 4103 10h 14m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 03m 88% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON