Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:35, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 432 Delta Flight history →	IAD 07:15	SLC 09:54	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 2410 United Flight history →	IAD 17:50	SLC 20:46	20%	5%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 10m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	7h 23m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	9h 25m	99%	85%
Frontier Details →	IAD 06:03 → LAS 08:18F9 4277	2h 06m Las Vegas	LAS 10:24 → SLC 13:00F9 3016	8h 57m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 57m	99%	84%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 35m Denver	DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840	7h 00m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	50m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658	6h 41m	90%	81%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955	9h 07m	100%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON