tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2435 United Flight history → IAD 17:55 SMF 20:40 20% 6% 0.6% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 00m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 9h 09m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743 10h 16m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 3h 58m Denver DEN 16:03 → SMF 17:41UA 1208 10h 28m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:46 → SMF 13:31AA 2078 10h 17m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682 8h 07m 88% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331 2h 04m Chicago ORD 16:33 → SMF 19:10UA 1519 8h 55m 94% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON