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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 10:13, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2319 United IAD 17:46 SNA 20:17 15% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 20m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 7h 44m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:21 → SNA 13:48AA 2465 10h 34m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 54m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 1h 32m Denver DEN 16:14 → SNA 17:54UA 1497 8h 06m 95% 81%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 08:58 → SEA 11:37AS 375 2h 25m Seattle SEA 14:02 → SNA 16:54AS 773 10h 56m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 9h 23m 98% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON