tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4425 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record IAD 09:00 STL 10:27 17% 14% 2.7% 83%
UA 4527 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:55 STL 19:26 27% 16% 1.1% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 43m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → STL 10:43DL 1289 5h 43m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 6h 15m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884 3h 58m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 7h 14m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 4h 31m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543 6h 45m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 4h 50m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 1h 25m Chicago ORD 11:01 → STL 12:35UA 1044 5h 20m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAD 15:05 → DFW 17:13AA 524 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:00 → STL 19:59AA 2487 5h 54m 73% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON