Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, G4 3026 at 15:54, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day G4 3026 IAD 15:54 → TYS 17:27 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


G4 3026 Allegiant	IAD 15:54	TYS 17:27	19%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 6110 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:50	TYS 14:27	18%	8%	0.0%	82%
UA 4257 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 09:00	TYS 10:42	20%	13%	0.9%	80%
UA 4304 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:10	TYS 23:54	24%	11%	0.6%	76%
UA 4914 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 18:46	TYS 20:34	25%	15%	2.2%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON