Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via O'Hare, leaving 09:35, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 09:35 → ORD 12:29UA 2124	3h 36m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461	13h 13m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	IAH 08:00 → SEA 10:41AS 241	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440	11h 08m	99%	72%
American Details →	IAH 11:01 → ORD 13:52AA 2504	3h 13m Chicago	ORD 17:05 → ANC 21:06AA 375	13h 05m	100%	71%
American Details →	IAH 10:27 → DFW 11:52AA 1407	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:09 → ANC 19:27AA 399	12h 00m	90%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON