Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1069 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1069 IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4076 IAH 10:53 → ATL 14:13 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1069 Delta Flight history →	IAH 05:40	ATL 08:50	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1315 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	ATL 10:04	6%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2304 Delta	IAH 08:10	ATL 11:18	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1030 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	ATL 10:39	6%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1585 Delta Flight history →	IAH 09:41	ATL 12:48	10%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 1682 Delta Flight history →	IAH 12:09	ATL 15:21	12%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 1572 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:38	ATL 17:54	14%	5%	0.6%	80%
F9 1404 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 05:58	ATL 09:16	16%	5%	0.8%	68%
DL 1223 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:34	ATL 21:54	17%	6%	0.6%	72%
DL 1651 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:52	ATL 21:59	20%	6%	0.6%	55%
UA 2240 United	IAH 18:08	ATL 21:19	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
F9 4076 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 10:53	ATL 14:13	25%	8%	0.7%	67%
UA 4079 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 11:55	ATL 15:16	21%	7%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON