Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2376 at 07:43 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2376 IAH 07:43 → AUS 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2674 IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2376 United	IAH 07:43	AUS 09:00	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1859 United Flight history →	IAH 12:05	AUS 13:12	15%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 1823 United Flight history →	IAH 10:15	AUS 11:19	17%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 2483 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	AUS 15:27	18%	8%	0.6%	84%
UA 1711 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	AUS 17:27	23%	9%	0.6%	70%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	IAH 18:50	AUS 19:57	23%	9%	0.6%	57%
UA 6118 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:20	AUS 15:29	21%	10%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON