tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2378 at 18:49, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2378 United IAH 18:49 BDL 23:31 21% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 58m Denver DEN 09:45 → BDL 15:37UA 2643 9h 22m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 1h 12m Detroit DTW 10:30 → BDL 12:13DL 2163 5h 43m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082 6h 05m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 8h 16m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 2h 21m Charlotte CLT 12:04 → BDL 14:17AA 2741 7h 16m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 3h 04m Chicago ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195 8h 20m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735 7h 18m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:17 → BDL 12:07AA 1083 6h 05m 94% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05B6 2180 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → BDL 23:59B6 460 6h 17m 52% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON