Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2174 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2174 IAH 07:40 → BNA 09:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 4785 IAH 18:02 → BNA 20:27 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2174 United Flight history →	IAH 07:40	BNA 09:47	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1318 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	BNA 14:02	13%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 2165 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	BNA 18:27	19%	6%	0.6%	49%
UA 4785 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 18:02	BNA 20:27	19%	8%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON