Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1977 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1977 IAH 07:30 → BOS 12:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 932 IAH 10:57 → BOS 15:54 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1977 United Flight history →	IAH 07:30	BOS 12:28	9%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 2393 United Flight history →	IAH 09:50	BOS 14:48	17%	8%	0.6%	82%
UA 521 United Flight history →	IAH 18:15	BOS 23:19	25%	10%	0.7%	68%
UA 2296 United	IAH 16:59	BOS 22:15	27%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 1226 United	IAH 12:25	BOS 17:25	27%	13%	0.6%	no record
B6 932 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 10:57	BOS 15:54	32%	14%	0.8%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	5h 47m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	47m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 30m	91%	79%
United Details →	IAH 10:57 → EWR 15:34UA 1340	56m Newark	EWR 16:30 → BOS 17:43UA 2433	5h 46m	77%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON