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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via SFO, leaving 12:51, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:51 → SFO 15:12UA 2611 2h 53m San Francisco SFO 18:05 → BUR 19:34UA 2001 8h 43m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 19m 90% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 15m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 28m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:17 → BUR 11:49AA 1208 8h 47m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 8h 57m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → IAH 08:00 → SEA 10:41AS 241 3h 14m Seattle SEA 13:55 → BUR 16:24AS 529 10h 24m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → SFO 09:25UA 1768 58m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 6h 29m 84% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON