Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 604 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 604 IAH 07:40 → BWI 11:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3068 IAH 16:21 → BWI 20:36 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 604 United Flight history →	IAH 07:40	BWI 11:47	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1720 United Flight history →	IAH 12:16	BWI 16:30	13%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 1830 United	IAH 18:25	BWI 23:04	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 3068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:21	BWI 20:36	32%	10%	1.1%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON