tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 10:58 → BZN 12:31DL 2946 7h 01m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 8h 31m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 3h 03m Denver DEN 11:55 → BZN 13:55UA 741 7h 35m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 11m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 40m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:56 → BZN 10:59AA 952 6h 57m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → LAX 08:57UA 2600 3h 53m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 10h 04m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 2h 36m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 01m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106 1h 18m Chicago ORD 10:25 → BZN 13:06AA 1080 7h 53m 95% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 47m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 5h 23m 66% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON