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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5091 at 12:50, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5091 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → IAH 12:50 CHA 16:03 19% 7% 0.6% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chattanooga is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22DL 1737 5h 42m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141 6h 02m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 26m Chicago ORD 10:25 → CHA 13:16UA 4543 · flown by GoJet 7h 12m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 19:36 → CHA 20:33DL 1722 4h 55m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:49 → CHA 17:46DL 3124 4h 37m 95% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 07:09 → DFW 08:42AA 3026 3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → CHA 15:38AA 2037 7h 29m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 1h 42m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → CHA 12:54AA 6127 · flown by Piedmont 5h 53m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 3h 07m Detroit DTW 12:25 → CHA 14:14DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor 7h 44m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON