tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2237 at 18:56, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2237 United IAH 18:56 CHS 22:45 23% 7% 0.7% no record
UA 6295 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:15 CHS 16:02 20% 6% 0.7% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107 5h 20m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 1h 47m Dulles IAD 13:15 → CHS 15:14UA 1952 6h 54m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 03m Denver DEN 09:50 → CHS 15:14UA 1003 8h 59m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179 5h 42m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381 5h 12m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 3h 29m Minneapolis MSP 12:42 → CHS 16:26DL 2463 8h 56m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 3h 01m Chicago ORD 11:00 → CHS 14:26UA 2631 8h 22m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 2h 36m Charlotte CLT 12:19 → CHS 13:25AA 5222 · flown by PSA 6h 24m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 08:57 → DFW 10:11AA 3598 · flown by Envoy 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:03 → CHS 14:48AA 2166 4h 51m 74% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON