Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2011 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 2011 IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1478 IAH 15:10 → CLT 18:54 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2011 American Flight history →	IAH 06:01	CLT 09:43	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 3162 American Flight history →	IAH 08:54	CLT 12:30	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 2445 American Flight history →	IAH 10:55	CLT 14:38	13%	4%	0.7%	90%
F9 2396 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 07:22	CLT 11:09	14%	4%	0.9%	81%
AA 1478 American Flight history →	IAH 15:10	CLT 18:54	16%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 3988 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:25	CLT 11:02	11%	2%	0.9%	89%
UA 6197 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:10	CLT 16:02	16%	8%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON