tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2850 at 12:48, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2850 United IAH 12:48 CVG 16:32 15% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 6312 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 07:30 CVG 10:59 11% 2% 1.0% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 4h 45m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 53m Denver DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27UA 1978 8h 12m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 6h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169 7h 11m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119 6h 16m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:48 → CVG 11:21AA 2610 5h 19m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 1h 17m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → CVG 12:29AA 1533 5h 28m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → CVG 14:15AA 3305 7h 13m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 52m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291 7h 25m 74% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON