Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 512 at 07:54 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 512 IAH 07:54 → DCA 12:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OH 5589 IAH 17:22 → DCA 21:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 512 United Flight history →	IAH 07:54	DCA 12:18	9%	4%	0.6%	95%
OH 5463 PSA	IAH 07:13	DCA 11:32	10%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	14%	6%	0.6%	70%
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	16%	7%	0.6%	75%
OH 5496 PSA	IAH 10:30	DCA 14:39	18%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 625 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	DCA 18:31	19%	8%	0.6%	69%
UA 235 United	IAH 16:55	DCA 21:18	20%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 1627 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DCA 22:15	21%	8%	0.6%	66%
OH 5589 PSA	IAH 17:22	DCA 21:30	24%	10%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON