Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1874 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1874 IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 470 IAH 16:31 → DEN 17:56 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1874 United Flight history →	IAH 05:15	DEN 06:47	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 2415 United	IAH 06:20	DEN 07:48	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1686 United	IAH 08:37	DEN 10:27	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1575 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	DEN 08:52	11%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 1450 United Flight history →	IAH 09:32	DEN 11:08	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2787 United	IAH 10:32	DEN 11:59	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2168 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	DEN 14:17	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
F9 3229 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 06:30	DEN 08:14	12%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 2767 United Flight history →	IAH 15:00	DEN 16:43	15%	6%	0.6%	75%
F9 3227 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 10:26	DEN 12:05	18%	5%	0.7%	65%
UA 1654 United Flight history →	IAH 18:19	DEN 20:14	20%	7%	0.6%	66%
UA 470 United Flight history →	IAH 16:31	DEN 17:56	23%	6%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON