Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2551 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2551 IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OH 5576 IAH 16:12 → DFW 17:28 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2551 American Flight history →	IAH 05:02	DFW 06:19	5%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 700 American Flight history →	IAH 06:02	DFW 07:28	7%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 358 United Flight history →	IAH 07:23	DFW 08:50	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 3026 American Flight history →	IAH 07:09	DFW 08:42	11%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	IAH 10:27	DFW 11:52	15%	6%	0.7%	86%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IAH 08:57	DFW 10:11	15%	3%	0.8%	81%
MQ 3477 Envoy	IAH 12:09	DFW 13:23	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1388 United Flight history →	IAH 14:46	DFW 16:16	18%	6%	0.6%	77%
AA 1397 American	IAH 14:01	DFW 15:22	19%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1599 United	IAH 16:55	DFW 18:16	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DFW 19:31	26%	7%	0.6%	71%
OH 5576 PSA	IAH 16:12	DFW 17:28	27%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 4024 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:05	DFW 13:34	20%	11%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON