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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1780 at 20:12, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1780 United Flight history → IAH 20:12 DSM 22:35 14% 6% 0.6% 77%
UA 6166 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 11:55 DSM 14:10 16% 5% 1.4% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094 7h 54m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 09m Denver DEN 09:56 → DSM 12:54UA 596 7h 39m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 8h 11m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 2h 22m Denver DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:11UA 1311 6h 39m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 01m Chicago ORD 09:00 → DSM 10:22UA 466 5h 18m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 50m Charlotte CLT 10:33 → DSM 12:07AA 2962 6h 06m 92% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:05 → ORD 11:01UA 1617 2h 08m Chicago ORD 13:09 → DSM 14:40UA 1658 6h 35m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 3h 23m Denver DEN 17:40 → DSM 20:30UA 549 7h 57m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON