Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2261 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2261 IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2180 IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2261 United Flight history →	IAH 07:35	FLL 11:22	10%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	IAH 10:26	FLL 14:20	15%	5%	0.7%	83%
UA 1982 United Flight history →	IAH 12:11	FLL 16:01	16%	5%	0.7%	84%
UA 277 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	FLL 20:07	18%	5%	0.8%	85%
B6 2380 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 07:24	FLL 10:47	20%	6%	0.8%	30%
UA 1956 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	FLL 22:04	20%	6%	0.8%	77%
F9 1496 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 08:20	FLL 12:01	21%	7%	1.1%	62%
UA 1424 United	IAH 14:45	FLL 18:25	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
B6 2780 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 13:00	FLL 16:23	34%	11%	0.9%	35%
B6 2180 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 16:42	FLL 20:05	37%	13%	1.2%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON