tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 5716 at 18:18, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5716 SkyWest IAH 18:18 GRR 22:09 15% 9% 1.0% no record
UA 6134 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:15 GRR 16:09 25% 6% 0.0% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 59m Atlanta ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547 5h 03m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 12:48 → GRR 15:17DL 1245 7h 47m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 11m Denver DEN 09:58 → GRR 14:35UA 2637 8h 20m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 38m Chicago ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297 6h 46m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058 6h 33m 99% 85%
FrontierDetails → IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:14F9 3229 2h 33m Denver DEN 10:47 → GRR 15:32F9 1248 8h 02m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616 3h 53m Chicago ORD 12:58 → GRR 15:13UA 2751 8h 03m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:53 → GRR 12:24AA 3167 6h 22m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397 1h 00m Newark EWR 19:30 → GRR 21:50UA 3580 · flown by Republic 7h 04m 73% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON