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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 253 United Flight history → IAH 10:10 HNL 13:26 37% 9% 1.0% 80%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 1h 12m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 13h 37m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 40m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:08 → MSP 08:53DL 1050 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 12h 35m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 44m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 25m Chicago ORD 10:24 → HNL 14:14UA 219 14h 10m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 417 1h 26m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158 10h 53m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → IAH 10:26 → LAX 12:09UA 469 1h 07m Los Angeles LAX 13:16 → HNL 16:08UA 1224 10h 42m 92% 68%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 3h 30m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 12h 58m 100% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON