Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1549 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1549 IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1373 IAH 18:32 → IAD 22:43 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1549 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	IAD 11:28	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2366 United Flight history →	IAH 12:13	IAD 16:30	16%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 1178 United	IAH 14:47	IAD 18:58	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2388 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	IAD 20:46	18%	6%	0.6%	70%
UA 1373 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	IAD 22:43	21%	6%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON