Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day C5 4302 IAH 10:01 → ICT 11:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4619 IAH 14:21 → ICT 16:08 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


C5 4302 CommuteAir	IAH 10:01	ICT 11:51	9%	4%	0.9%	no record
G7 4186 GoJet	IAH 12:07	ICT 13:55	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
C5 4367 CommuteAir	IAH 18:58	ICT 21:04	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
G7 4619 GoJet	IAH 14:21	ICT 16:08	18%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON