Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1264 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1264 IAH 07:20 → LAS 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1965 IAH 17:46 → LAS 19:13 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1264 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAS 08:35	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
F9 1489 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 05:14	LAS 06:39	9%	4%	1.0%	82%
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	LAS 13:13	12%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 1799 United Flight history →	IAH 10:55	LAS 12:14	13%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 1971 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LAS 15:37	16%	8%	0.8%	85%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	IAH 16:38	LAS 18:08	17%	8%	0.6%	82%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	IAH 18:39	LAS 19:57	20%	9%	0.6%	79%
F9 4131 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 14:54	LAS 16:21	25%	10%	1.5%	74%
F9 1965 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 17:46	LAS 19:13	29%	10%	1.2%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON