Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 417 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 417 IAH 06:00 → LAX 07:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 2658 IAH 18:40 → LAX 20:19 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 417 United Flight history →	IAH 06:00	LAX 07:39	7%	2%	0.7%	97%
DL 1216 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:10	LAX 08:30	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2600 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAX 08:57	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 469 United Flight history →	IAH 09:53	LAX 11:30	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 1945 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	LAX 16:29	13%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 2460 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	LAX 14:06	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	IAH 16:09	LAX 17:30	14%	6%	0.5%	76%
UA 1743 United Flight history →	IAH 16:31	LAX 18:08	16%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 2658 United Flight history →	IAH 18:40	LAX 20:19	19%	6%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON