Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2245 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 2245 IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2451 IAH 18:26 → MCO 21:58 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2245 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	MCO 10:51	6%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2310 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	MCO 13:00	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 2662 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	MCO 16:04	13%	5%	1.0%	86%
UA 1571 United Flight history →	IAH 17:09	MCO 20:48	16%	6%	0.8%	82%
UA 496 United Flight history →	IAH 14:36	MCO 18:14	17%	6%	2.2%	81%
F9 1418 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:16	MCO 16:53	18%	6%	4.0%	77%
UA 2451 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	MCO 21:58	21%	7%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON