Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 16m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 34m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	7h 16m	99%	80%
Frontier Details →	IAH 10:53 → ATL 14:13F9 4076	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 17:06 → MDW 18:24F9 2779	7h 31m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	IAH 11:32 → DTW 15:20DL 1043	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 57m	99%	58%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 39m	98%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON