Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2144 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2144 IAH 05:25 → MIA 09:06 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1462 IAH 14:09 → MIA 17:52 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2144 American Flight history →	IAH 05:25	MIA 09:06	8%	3%	0.9%	93%
UA 2753 United	IAH 07:55	MIA 11:33	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	19%	6%	0.7%	84%
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 10:43	MIA 14:25	20%	6%	0.9%	87%
UA 1829 United Flight history →	IAH 19:01	MIA 22:40	26%	9%	1.0%	78%
MQ 3358 Envoy	IAH 18:01	MIA 21:47	30%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 678 American Flight history →	IAH 16:44	MIA 20:26	32%	10%	1.2%	57%
F9 1462 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 14:09	MIA 17:52	33%	11%	1.4%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON