Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1050 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1050 IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1818 IAH 14:35 → MSP 17:24 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1050 Delta Flight history →	IAH 06:30	MSP 09:13	6%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 1554 Delta	IAH 10:40	MSP 13:26	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 2617 Delta Flight history →	IAH 17:40	MSP 20:32	16%	7%	0.5%	74%
DL 1516 Delta	IAH 14:49	MSP 17:32	18%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 1818 United	IAH 14:35	MSP 17:24	18%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON