Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 491 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 491 IAH 07:30 → MSY 08:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2140 IAH 18:32 → MSY 19:51 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 491 United Flight history →	IAH 07:30	MSY 08:46	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 575 United Flight history →	IAH 09:45	MSY 11:01	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 2385 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	MSY 13:14	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 2738 United	IAH 14:48	MSY 16:13	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2140 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	MSY 19:51	23%	8%	0.7%	76%
UA 6173 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:40	MSY 17:59	23%	9%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON