Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	6h 11m	90%	85%
Frontier Details →	IAH 05:14 → LAS 06:39F9 1489	1h 09m Las Vegas	LAS 07:48 → OAK 09:35F9 2045	6h 21m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON