Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5619 IAH 09:36 → OKC 11:12 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 5278 IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5619 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 09:36	OKC 11:12	15%	6%	0.6%	93%
UA 5278 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 18:12	OKC 19:53	18%	9%	0.6%	72%
UA 6178 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:25	OKC 08:57	10%	3%	0.0%	90%
UA 6334 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:35	OKC 18:15	12%	6%	0.6%	88%
UA 4344 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:46	OKC 11:22	12%	12%	3.8%	88%
UA 6189 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	OKC 16:15	15%	2%	0.0%	85%
UA 4301 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:10	OKC 13:51	30%	11%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON