Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, F9 3131 at 16:13, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


F9 3131 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:13	ONT 17:59	22%	7%	0.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583	1h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:12DL 1173	6h 37m	96%	89%
United Details →	IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575	2h 33m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430	7h 27m	99%	85%
American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:29 → ONT 09:52AA 1820	6h 50m	97%	83%
Frontier Details →	IAH 05:14 → LAS 06:39F9 1489	3h 22m Las Vegas	LAS 10:01 → ONT 11:21F9 1283	8h 07m	100%	82%
American Details →	IAH 07:09 → DFW 08:42AA 3026	3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635	8h 33m	97%	81%
American Details →	IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → ONT 12:10AA 2956	8h 08m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891	8h 21m	96%	76%
United Details →	IAH 07:20 → SFO 09:25UA 1768	1h 15m San Francisco	SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661	6h 52m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	IAH 08:00 → SEA 10:41AS 241	47m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → ONT 14:01AS 571	8h 01m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON