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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Norfolk on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:16DL 2925 7h 36m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 1h 37m Dulles IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa 5h 57m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:30DL 2731 6h 52m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101 5h 09m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616 3h 11m Chicago ORD 12:16 → ORF 15:41UA 2807 8h 31m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 12:44 → ORF 14:10AA 2911 7h 09m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346 5h 45m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:30 → ORF 14:48AA 2282 7h 46m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → IAH 10:57 → BOS 15:54B6 932 54m Boston BOS 16:48 → ORF 18:38B6 1813 6h 41m 63% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON