Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2203 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2203 IAH 07:24 → PHL 12:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1663 IAH 18:05 → PHL 22:29 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2203 United Flight history →	IAH 07:24	PHL 12:10	7%	3%	0.7%	97%
AA 3196 American	IAH 07:09	PHL 11:50	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2427 American Flight history →	IAH 12:00	PHL 16:48	17%	6%	0.7%	81%
UA 2748 United Flight history →	IAH 12:20	PHL 16:55	19%	6%	0.6%	55%
AA 2486 American	IAH 16:21	PHL 21:09	20%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 836 American	IAH 14:11	PHL 18:59	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1663 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	PHL 22:29	20%	6%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON