Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2614 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2614 IAH 08:00 → PHX 08:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1703 IAH 17:37 → PHX 18:41 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2614 United Flight history →	IAH 08:00	PHX 08:57	9%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 1895 United Flight history →	IAH 09:40	PHX 10:34	13%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 2357 American Flight history →	IAH 14:16	PHX 15:17	16%	7%	0.6%	89%
UA 1798 United Flight history →	IAH 14:15	PHX 15:13	17%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 1478 United	IAH 17:01	PHX 18:08	17%	8%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4153 Envoy	IAH 18:01	PHX 19:02	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1259 United	IAH 18:27	PHX 19:24	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
F9 1703 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 17:37	PHX 18:41	28%	10%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON