Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 315 at 12:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 315 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	PIT 15:56	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 2757 United	IAH 18:05	PIT 22:05	25%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	6h 12m	99%	91%
United Details →	IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616	3h 35m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic	8h 13m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583	7h 22m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353	5h 09m	96%	86%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	3h 18m Denver	DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308	9h 01m	99%	86%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 10:30 → PIT 13:07UA 2752	7h 03m	100%	85%
American Details →	IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 12:32 → PIT 14:07AA 1736	7h 06m	99%	85%
American Details →	IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → PIT 14:50AA 2664	7h 48m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397	59m Newark	EWR 19:29 → PIT 21:06UA 3403 · flown by Republic	6h 20m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON