Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2196 IAH 12:03 → RDU 15:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 2498 IAH 18:08 → RDU 21:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2196 United Flight history →	IAH 12:03	RDU 15:55	11%	5%	0.6%	83%
F9 1742 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 09:40	RDU 13:36	15%	4%	0.7%	80%
UA 2498 United Flight history →	IAH 18:08	RDU 21:59	19%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 6148 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 08:15	RDU 12:02	9%	1%	1.1%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON