tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4057 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:03 RIC 16:11 11% 4% 0.9% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 5h 16m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 12:32 → RIC 14:15DL 3152 6h 15m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 04m Denver DEN 09:51 → RIC 15:29UA 724 9h 14m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 5h 42m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 1h 32m Dulles IAD 13:00 → RIC 14:01UA 4535 · flown by GoJet 5h 41m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:14 → RIC 11:11AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 5h 09m 93% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:05 → ORD 11:01UA 1617 3h 29m Chicago ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic 8h 44m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 18:33 → RIC 20:16DL 1263 7h 07m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:00 → EWR 16:46UA 2371 59m Newark EWR 17:45 → RIC 19:25UA 4176 · flown by GoJet 6h 25m 75% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON