tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 494 United IAH 09:30 RSW 13:14 11% 4% 0.7% no record
UA 2095 United IAH 18:27 RSW 21:56 18% 6% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 5h 31m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 35m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 48m Denver DEN 09:35 → RSW 15:22UA 2601 9h 07m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 3h 39m Minneapolis MSP 12:52 → RSW 17:19DL 2219 9h 49m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 6h 03m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 52m Chicago ORD 10:51 → RSW 14:48UA 2137 8h 44m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 2h 23m Charlotte CLT 12:06 → RSW 14:14AA 2018 7h 13m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 1h 57m Denver DEN 16:14 → RSW 22:13UA 572 8h 40m 96% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:51 → EWR 14:30UA 2402 50m Newark EWR 15:20 → RSW 18:24UA 1832 7h 33m 68% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON