Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2491 IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 2798 IAH 16:24 → SAN 17:54 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2491 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	SAN 10:51	18%	5%	0.7%	86%
UA 2399 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	SAN 13:21	19%	7%	0.7%	83%
UA 1114 United	IAH 14:20	SAN 15:50	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2798 United	IAH 16:24	SAN 17:54	21%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON